Primary Day DeBriefing

What a day, yesterday! I was myself surprised by the results, which are still forthcoming. Let's take a look state by state.

In Vermont, no surprises, everyone won their respective nominations by large margins, with Independent Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination, even though he plans to renounce it.

In New Hampshire, the only competitive race was for the right to face off against Congressman Jeb Bradley on the Democratic side. Stunningly, Carol Shea-Porter, a anti-war activist, won by an 18-point margin in a surprising upset over Democratic House Minority Leader Jim Craig. With little cash and little political experience, Shea-Porter stands little chance of defeating Bradley, but with her focus on the war, she may be able to focus the state's voters on Iraq, helping GOP Rep. Charlie Bass' opponent, Paul Hodes.

In Rhode Island, Senator Lincoln Chafee held on to his seat after a very strong challenge from ultraconservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Laffey ran an anti-Washington, anti-establishment campaign that was populist in nature. He ran against taxes, government spending and corruption and for a renewable energy economy (surprisingly). In another year, Laffey may have made the race against Democratic nominee and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, but in this Democratic year, the race would have been too easy for Whitehouse. Because of that, I was rooting for Laffey to win the primary on the GOP side, enabling Whitehouse to pick up a Democratic seat in the Senate. Unfortunately, Chafee, being strongly backed by the NRSC, which along with the NRCC has gotten surprisingly involved in a numbe rof primaries this year, was able to pummel Laffey with negative advertising and pull out a strong Independent turnout that supported Chafee. But Chafee is hardly a shoo-in, as polls show Whitehouse ahead by a very small margin. If Whitehouse convinces Rhode Island voters that Chafee's positions on issues don't matter as long as he votes for Republican leadership and Republican committee chairmen and allows radical right-wing Republicans to control the Senate agenda, he will win. If this is a race between the two on issues, Whitehouse may lose because the two don't disagree on all that much. In the race for renomination of pro-life Democratic Congressman Jim Langevin, liberal professor Jennifer Lawless lost by 25 points.

In New York, soon-to-be Governor and Presidential Candidate Eliot Spitzer cruised to a landslide 70-point win over Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton crushed anti-war Jonathan Tasini 83-17. Unfortunately, former HUD Secretary and Governor Mario Cuomo's son, Andrew Cuomo, won the Democratic nomination in New York (I really dislike Cuomo, who I find very pompous, and I really love Mark Green, who lost by a big margin but who is a very upstanding politician). In NY-19, in the race to face off against vulnerable Republican incumbent Sue Kelly, John Hall beat New York Times endorsed Judy Aydelott to face Kelly. The race leans GOP, but Hall has a good shot if there is a strong wave in New York, as there should be with both Clinton and Spitzer winning more than 65% of the vote. In the race to succeed Major Owens in NY-11, Councilwoman Yvette Clarke beat Carl Andrews, David Yassky, and Owens' own son, Chris Owens to succeed Owens.

In Minnesota, things went as expected and Keith Ellison, in MN-05, won the Democratic nomination to replace Rep. Martin Sabo, who is retiring, beating a Sabo aide in the process. Ellison will be the first black congressman ever from Minnesota and the first Muslim-American ever elected to Congress. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) and Attorney General Mike Hatch (D) each won their respective primaries, as did Amy Klobuchar (D) and Mark Kennedy (R) for the Senate. Pawlenty and Klobuchar are favored in the fall.

In Wisconsin, the only race was the Democratic nomination for retiring GOP Congressman and Gubernatorial candidate Mark Green in WI-08. In the race, wealthy physician Steve Kagen won the nomination over four others. With the ability to self-finance his campaign, this race is a toss-up in the fall when Kagen faces State Assembly Speaker and Republican John Gard.

In Delaware, there are no competitive races for the fall, and the primary winners merely competed for the right to be sacrificial lambs in the fall to Senator Tom Carper (D) and Rep. Mike Castle (R).

In Arizona, the only competitive primaries were in AZ-08, a moderate district currently represented by the only openly gay Republican in Congress, Jim Kolbe, who retired this year. For the Republicans, Randy Graf, a hardline conservative whose anti-immigration views will make it nearly impossible for him to win in this increasingly Hispanic district. Gabrielle Giffords, a former state Senator, is the perfect candidate for Democrats this year, and most analysts now believe AZ-08 to be a lean Dem district with Graf's and Giffords' wins over their opponents.

In Maryland, Congressman Ben Cardin won by a small margin over former Congressman Kweisi Mfume, 44-40, with sixteen others getting the rest. The suprising race of the night was Donna Edwards' suprisingly close second place finish to incumbent Congressman Al Wynn (CD-4). Edwards got 47% of the vote to Al Wynn's 51%, and while there are still more votes to count (Montgomery County had enormous electronic voting machines and provisional ballot problems, thanks Diebold and HAVA), Wynn is favored to hold his nomination. But expect Edwards to run again two years from now and probably win. Wynn's corporate ties and support of the bankruptcy bill and the Iraq War made the black congressman unpopular in this heavily African-American and liberal district. Edwards, also black, is staunchly liberal, and was able to galvanize people over Iraq war anger. In CD-3, Senator Paul Sarbanes' son, Jon, won a multiple candidate race for the nomination to succeed Congressman Ben Cardin. The CD-3 and CD-4 seats are staunchly Democratic, so both Wynn and Sarbanes will be Congressman next year.

Finally, in our home the District of Columbia, Adrian Fenty won the mayoral nomination (tantamount to the general election in DC) by an unsurprisingly large margin. And Vincent Gray was nominated for Council Chair.