tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13465421.post114676341347422034..comments2023-04-14T06:55:12.586-04:00Comments on Georgetown College Dems Blog: 2008 Forecast Part DeuxGUCD_Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15079690058422947230noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13465421.post-1147120898015282402006-05-08T16:41:00.000-04:002006-05-08T16:41:00.000-04:00A bit delayed of a reaction on my part, but I just...A bit delayed of a reaction on my part, but I just want to echo what Or said. I honestly don't see John McCain ever winning the Republican nomination for president of the United States, not in my lifetime or in any other, for that matter. His strong showings in the polls right now are attributable only to the fact that it is simply too early to really test the strength of any one candidate. The Democratic polls right now will show you the same thing-- if the election were decided on the basis of April 2006 polling, Hillary would win the Democratic nomination (so thank goodness they're not). The reality is that it is far too early to give the nomination to John McCain, considering that the religious right, as Or rightly points out, have yet to coalesce behind one particular candidate, but they have plenty of time to scramble together an opponent to McCain.Rach Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13199999059540548096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13465421.post-1146883813766506392006-05-05T22:50:00.000-04:002006-05-05T22:50:00.000-04:00Good writeup, but you're seriously underestimating...Good writeup, but you're seriously underestimating the power of a candidate from the religious right. In 1988, Buchanan pulled significant strength against a George Allen-like Bush 41, and this was before the religious right became as ridiculously powerful in the Republican party as it is now. Maybe the far-right fundamentalists will back Allen in the theoretical Allen v. McCain struggle, but I feel like Allen just doesn't have the kind of credentials for the religious right that some of the other candidates do. Frist is a disaster who has managed to piss everyone off, but he still has a lot of support among evangelicals (the SRLC straw poll showed that, if nothing else.) Huckabee lacks recognition but has serious charisma (plus, he stands as the only right wing politician to come out on top versus Colbert), and could end up the champion of the right. Brownback is also, as you mentioned, a darling of the religious right.Yes, maybe Brownback and Huckabee like government too much for many Republicans, but the religious base is honestly just too powerful to not have a candidate they can get passionate about. I'm not saying they'll win, but they'll throw off the Allen v. McCain race.<BR/><BR/>Which brings us to John McCain. Yes, he's <B> enormously </B> popular among independents, Democrats, and moderate Republicans. Unfortunately, those are the three groups of people who really don't vote that much in Republican primaries.<BR/><BR/>I'm from Arizona, and conservative Republicans in AZ absolutely despise John McCain. We progressives might say he's definitely a conservative and not even a moderate, but that's not the perception. Far-right republicans in AZ hate McCain almost as much as they hate Hillary Clinton. He's literally their Joe Lieberman; even though both are devoted members of their parties in reality, they appear to be much too close to the other side. Many conservative Republicans would not vote for McCain if their life depended on it. If this is true in his home state of AZ, it's doubly true everywhere else, and McCain has become even less popular since he carried the sate in 2000 with his criticism of Bush. I think Republicans will need to be in truly dire straits to ever nominate McCain, plain and simple.Orhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13252827101233849690noreply@blogger.com